Election Update
With the midterm election less than four weeks away, here is a sketch of the US Senate races. Currently, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 51 seats, so every race is extremely important in determining who will hold control for the next session. However, the vast majority of the incumbent Senators are Democrats making the likelihood of the Senate switching very difficult.
US Senate
35 Senate seats will be up for reelection on November 6th. Highlights indicate which party is leading in the polls (data as of September 30th). States Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas are toss-up states and their specific breakdown will be reviewed later.
Non-Toss up States
State |
Incumbent |
Competitor |
| Michigan | Debbie Stabenow (Democrat) | John James (Republican) |
| Minnesota (Special Election) | Tina Smith (Democrat) | Karin Housely (Republican) |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar (Democrat) | Jim Newberger (Republican) |
| Mississippi (Special Election) | Cindy-Hyde Smith (Republican) | Mike Espey (Democrat) |
| Mississippi | Roger Wicker (Republican) | David Baria |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (Democrat) | Jim Renaccii (Republican) |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin (Democrat) | Leah Vukmir (Republican) |
| West Virginia | Joe Manchin (Democrat) | Patrick Morrisey (Republican) |
| California | Dianne Feinstein (Democrat) | Kevin De Leon (Republican) |
| Connecticut | Christ Murphy (Democrat) | Matthew Corey |
| Deleware | Tom Harper (Democrat) | Rob Arlett (Republican) |
| Hawaii | Mazie Hirono (Democrat) | Ron Curtis (Republican) |
| Massachusettes | Elizabeth Warren (Democrat) | Geoff Deihl (Republican) |
| Maryland | Ben Cardin (Democrat) | Tony Campbell (Republican) |
| Maine | Angus King (Independent) | Eric Brakey (Republican) |
| Nebraska | Deb Fisher (Republican) | Jane Raybould (Democrat) |
| New Mexico | Martin Heinrich (Democrat) | Mark Rich (Republican) |
| New York | Kristen Gillibrand (Democrat) | Chele Farley (Republican) |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey (Democrat) | Lou Barletta (Republican) |
| Rhode Island | Sheldon Whitehouse (Democrat) | Bob Flanders (Republican) |
| Utah | Mitt Romney (Republican) | Jenny Wilson (Democrat) |
| Virginia | Tim Kaine (Democrat) | Corey Stewart (Republican) |
| Vermont | Bernie Sanders (Independent) | Lawrence Zupan (Republican) |
| Washington | Maria Cantwell (Democrat) | Susan Hutchison (Republican) |
| Wyoming | John Barrasso (Republican) | Gary Trauner (Democrat) |
Of the 35 elections, many do not qualify as toss-ups. According to RealClearPolitics Polling data, the states that are toss-ups are Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. Being a toss-up means that the margin of victory is within 3 or 4 points. Here is the polling information between the nominees.
Toss-Up States
States |
Races with Margins |
| Arizona | Martha McSally(R) vs. Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Sinema 2.5 point margin Jeff Flake is not seeking re-election in 2018 |
| Florida | Bill Nelson(Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Rick Scott (Republican)
Nelson 1.1 point margin |
| Indiana | Joe Donnelly (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Mike Braun (Republican)
Donnelly 0.5 point margin |
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill (Democrat-incumbent) vs. Josh Hawley (Republican)
Hawley 1 point margin |
| Montana | Jon Tester (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Matt Rosendale (Republican)
Tester 3 point margin |
| Nevada | Dean Heller (Republican-Incumbent) vs. Jacky Rosen (Democrat)
Rosen 0.7 margin |
| New Jersey | Robert Menedez (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Bob Hugin (Republican)
Menendez 4.7 point margin |
| North Dakota | Heidi Heitkamp (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Kevin Kramer (Republican)
Cramer 1.6 point margin |
| Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn (R-Incumbent) vs. Phil Bredesen (Democrat)
Tie |
| Texas | Ted Cruz (Republican-Incumbent) vs. Beto O’Rourke (Democrat)
Cruz 4 point margin |
This election will hold many implications for the Trump administration. The victors of the election will wield the majority in the US Senate which will drastically shape both the Executive ability to make appointments and the legislative agenda for the new Congress. It will be interesting to see what transpires. Regardless make sure you vote.