Election Update

With the midterm election less than four weeks away, here is a sketch of the US Senate races. Currently, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 51 seats, so every race is extremely important in determining who will hold control for the next session. However, the vast majority of the incumbent Senators are Democrats making the likelihood of the Senate switching very difficult.

US Senate

35 Senate seats will be up for reelection on November 6th.  Highlights indicate which party is leading in the polls (data as of September 30th). States Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas are toss-up states and their specific breakdown will be reviewed later.

Non-Toss up States

State

Incumbent

Competitor

MichiganDebbie Stabenow (Democrat)John James (Republican)
Minnesota (Special Election)Tina Smith (Democrat)Karin Housely (Republican)
MinnesotaAmy Klobuchar (Democrat)Jim Newberger (Republican)
Mississippi (Special Election)Cindy-Hyde Smith (Republican)Mike Espey (Democrat)
MississippiRoger Wicker (Republican)David Baria
OhioSherrod Brown (Democrat)Jim Renaccii (Republican)
WisconsinTammy Baldwin (Democrat)Leah Vukmir (Republican)
West VirginiaJoe Manchin (Democrat)Patrick Morrisey (Republican)
California             Dianne Feinstein (Democrat)Kevin De Leon (Republican)
ConnecticutChrist Murphy (Democrat)Matthew Corey
DelewareTom Harper (Democrat)Rob Arlett (Republican)
HawaiiMazie Hirono (Democrat)Ron Curtis (Republican)
MassachusettesElizabeth Warren (Democrat)Geoff Deihl (Republican)
MarylandBen Cardin (Democrat)Tony Campbell (Republican)
MaineAngus King (Independent)Eric Brakey (Republican)
NebraskaDeb Fisher (Republican)Jane Raybould (Democrat)
New MexicoMartin Heinrich (Democrat)Mark Rich (Republican)
New YorkKristen Gillibrand (Democrat)Chele Farley (Republican)
PennsylvaniaBob Casey (Democrat)Lou Barletta (Republican)
Rhode IslandSheldon Whitehouse (Democrat)Bob Flanders (Republican)
UtahMitt Romney (Republican)Jenny Wilson (Democrat)
VirginiaTim Kaine (Democrat)Corey Stewart (Republican)
VermontBernie Sanders (Independent)Lawrence Zupan (Republican)
WashingtonMaria Cantwell (Democrat)Susan Hutchison (Republican)
WyomingJohn Barrasso (Republican)Gary Trauner (Democrat)

 

Of the 35 elections, many do not qualify as toss-ups. According to RealClearPolitics Polling data, the states that are toss-ups are Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. Being a toss-up means that the margin of victory is within 3 or 4 points. Here is the polling information between the nominees.

Toss-Up States

States

Races with Margins

Arizona  Martha McSally(R) vs.  Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Sinema 2.5 point margin

Jeff Flake is not seeking re-election in 2018

FloridaBill Nelson(Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Rick Scott (Republican)

Nelson 1.1 point margin

IndianaJoe Donnelly (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Mike Braun (Republican)

Donnelly 0.5 point margin

MissouriClaire McCaskill (Democrat-incumbent) vs. Josh Hawley (Republican)

Hawley 1 point margin

MontanaJon Tester (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Matt Rosendale (Republican)

Tester 3 point margin

NevadaDean Heller (Republican-Incumbent) vs. Jacky Rosen (Democrat)

Rosen 0.7 margin

New JerseyRobert Menedez (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Bob Hugin (Republican)

Menendez 4.7 point margin

North DakotaHeidi Heitkamp (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Kevin Kramer (Republican)

Cramer 1.6 point margin

TennesseeMarsha Blackburn (R-Incumbent) vs. Phil Bredesen (Democrat)

Tie

TexasTed Cruz (Republican-Incumbent) vs. Beto O’Rourke (Democrat)

Cruz 4 point margin

 

This election will hold many implications for the Trump administration. The victors of the election will wield the majority in the US Senate which will drastically shape both the Executive ability to make appointments and the legislative agenda for the new Congress. It will be interesting to see what transpires. Regardless make sure you vote.    

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1 Comment

  1. Bob on October 18, 2018 at 10:39 am

    Can you tell us some of the main platform issues of each of the candidates?

    Additionally, from what poles did you get the point differential? I have heard a much greater result for the “Beto” v. Cruz race. (By the way, his name is NOT BETO, but ROBERT FRANCIS. Beto is a nickname and not his official name. At least “Ted” is actually a shortened form of Cruz’s middle name.)