With the midterm election less than four weeks away, here is a sketch of the US Senate races. Currently, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 51 seats, so every race is extremely important in determining who will hold control for the next session. However, the vast majority of the incumbent Senators are Democrats making the likelihood of the Senate switching very difficult.

US Senate

35 Senate seats will be up for reelection on November 6th.  Highlights indicate which party is leading in the polls (data as of September 30th). States Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas are toss-up states and their specific breakdown will be reviewed later.

Non-Toss up States

State

Incumbent

Competitor

Michigan Debbie Stabenow (Democrat) John James (Republican)
Minnesota (Special Election) Tina Smith (Democrat) Karin Housely (Republican)
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar (Democrat) Jim Newberger (Republican)
Mississippi (Special Election) Cindy-Hyde Smith (Republican) Mike Espey (Democrat)
Mississippi Roger Wicker (Republican) David Baria
Ohio Sherrod Brown (Democrat) Jim Renaccii (Republican)
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin (Democrat) Leah Vukmir (Republican)
West Virginia Joe Manchin (Democrat) Patrick Morrisey (Republican)
California              Dianne Feinstein (Democrat) Kevin De Leon (Republican)
Connecticut Christ Murphy (Democrat) Matthew Corey
Deleware Tom Harper (Democrat) Rob Arlett (Republican)
Hawaii Mazie Hirono (Democrat) Ron Curtis (Republican)
Massachusettes Elizabeth Warren (Democrat) Geoff Deihl (Republican)
Maryland Ben Cardin (Democrat) Tony Campbell (Republican)
Maine Angus King (Independent) Eric Brakey (Republican)
Nebraska Deb Fisher (Republican) Jane Raybould (Democrat)
New Mexico Martin Heinrich (Democrat) Mark Rich (Republican)
New York Kristen Gillibrand (Democrat) Chele Farley (Republican)
Pennsylvania Bob Casey (Democrat) Lou Barletta (Republican)
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse (Democrat) Bob Flanders (Republican)
Utah Mitt Romney (Republican) Jenny Wilson (Democrat)
Virginia Tim Kaine (Democrat) Corey Stewart (Republican)
Vermont Bernie Sanders (Independent) Lawrence Zupan (Republican)
Washington Maria Cantwell (Democrat) Susan Hutchison (Republican)
Wyoming John Barrasso (Republican) Gary Trauner (Democrat)

 

Of the 35 elections, many do not qualify as toss-ups. According to RealClearPolitics Polling data, the states that are toss-ups are Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. Being a toss-up means that the margin of victory is within 3 or 4 points. Here is the polling information between the nominees.

Toss-Up States

States

Races with Margins

Arizona   Martha McSally(R) vs.  Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Sinema 2.5 point margin

Jeff Flake is not seeking re-election in 2018

Florida Bill Nelson(Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Rick Scott (Republican)

Nelson 1.1 point margin

Indiana Joe Donnelly (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Mike Braun (Republican)

Donnelly 0.5 point margin

Missouri Claire McCaskill (Democrat-incumbent) vs. Josh Hawley (Republican)

Hawley 1 point margin

Montana Jon Tester (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Matt Rosendale (Republican)

Tester 3 point margin

Nevada Dean Heller (Republican-Incumbent) vs. Jacky Rosen (Democrat)

Rosen 0.7 margin

New Jersey Robert Menedez (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Bob Hugin (Republican)

Menendez 4.7 point margin

North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp (Democrat-Incumbent) vs. Kevin Kramer (Republican)

Cramer 1.6 point margin

Tennessee Marsha Blackburn (R-Incumbent) vs. Phil Bredesen (Democrat)

Tie

Texas Ted Cruz (Republican-Incumbent) vs. Beto O’Rourke (Democrat)

Cruz 4 point margin

 

This election will hold many implications for the Trump administration. The victors of the election will wield the majority in the US Senate which will drastically shape both the Executive ability to make appointments and the legislative agenda for the new Congress. It will be interesting to see what transpires. Regardless make sure you vote.    

2 Comments

  1. Bob on October 18, 2018 at 10:39 am

    Can you tell us some of the main platform issues of each of the candidates?

    Additionally, from what poles did you get the point differential? I have heard a much greater result for the “Beto” v. Cruz race. (By the way, his name is NOT BETO, but ROBERT FRANCIS. Beto is a nickname and not his official name. At least “Ted” is actually a shortened form of Cruz’s middle name.)



  2. helpme222 on October 18, 2018 at 11:45 am

    I agree with you Bob.

    The “Beto” v Cruz race is the most in the news. Names have importance. Choosing a name to win the vote from a certain population is wrong and sometimes it backfires, aka Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren.

    I would also like to know from which poles the numbers were obtained because I have heard much variance on several of the races.

    No matter what, everyone should get out and VOTE!