Recession Reality

By: Gabrielle Etzel

Hidden behind the day-to-day political scandals which consume the mainstream media is the impending inevitability of an economic crisis. Although individuals around the world are still reeling from the 2008 financial meltdown, the next recession in America is just around the corner after several years of moderate macroeconomic growth. (The fact that individuals themselves haven’t felt this growth directly is a problem in itself, but a topic for another day.)

Although many experts are predicting the next crash between 2019 and 2020, these estimates are not much more than (well) educated guesses.

Economics as a discipline has much more to offer than mere market analysis or monetary theory; it is an analytical framework for human action and individual thought. Economics can answer many questions about human behavior in society – ranging from why people don’t vote to why terrorists commit heinous political violence – except for one of the most important questions in life: WHEN?

With a primary focus on the effects of people’s actions, Economics is at the mercy of the individual humans, who not only have the capacity for stunning ingenuity in problem-solving but also are prone to flippant and transitory whims. Whether through creativity or through passing fancy, individuals have the capacity to change the course of human history more quickly than it will take you to finish reading this article. When trying to study the messy, complex interactions which comprise society, can you blame the poor economist (or any social scientist) for getting his timing wrong?

Main take away here: the economist isn’t as crazy the random guy on the street corner with a sign saying the end is near, but he isn’t a man with a crystal ball.

From the sustained stock market growth and the abnormally low unemployment rate, America is due for an economic dip sometime soon; however, take with caution the statements of anyone who claims to know the exact timing of his predictions.

If you are interested in knowing the WHY behind recessions, now you are thinking like a real economist!

Share the Facts:

10 Comments

  1. Trudy on October 11, 2018 at 2:21 pm

    I wish I had the crystal ball. If we could know when a crisis might come and how bad the crisis might be.



  2. Bob on October 11, 2018 at 2:40 pm

    Aren’t we all economists in our own way. Simply being able to pay bills and have savings makes us such. Unfortunately, this seems to be a skill that society seems to be losing.



  3. Gem on October 11, 2018 at 4:22 pm

    As the stock market closed down again today, are we headed into the economic crisis?



  4. kate on October 11, 2018 at 7:37 pm

    The economy has been so good (?) lately, and the stock market has been inflated, we are due for a reset. With the two day decline in the market and the Fed talking about raising interests rates, are we so for the economic crisis or a recession. Oh to have a crystal ball!



  5. Bob on October 12, 2018 at 10:19 am

    I never thought about it, but economics does explain the WHY which is why people say “follow the money.” Economics can explain many (but not all) behaviors, from the individual to the group to the country. I would like to have the crystal ball so that I could know WHEN. Imagine the power!



  6. Bob on October 12, 2018 at 10:19 am

    I never thought about it, but economics does explain the WHY which is why people say “follow the money.” Economics can explain many (but not all) behaviors, from the individual to the group to the country. I would like to have the crystal ball so that I could know WHEN. Imagine the power!



  7. Bob on October 13, 2018 at 10:53 am

    What does it take to have a comment posted on this site? Is there censorship going on here because my last couple of comments have been excluded?



  8. Beverly on October 13, 2018 at 8:51 pm

    I follow you on your blog and see that some of your commentators find that their reviews are not posted on this site, so I thought I would try it for myself and see if I was censored.

    Those of us who know history but are light-weights in economics are frightened for an economic downturn or crisis. It would be great to know when, but I guess it means that we simply need to always be prepared. It is the same as living in a hurricane zone.



  9. Mr. Economics on October 22, 2018 at 12:08 pm

    The economy is always a major issue during any election cycle and the current one is no exception. Knowing what will happen would be fantastic.
    The economy rules the actions of the people and the people direct economy.



  10. Hanley on October 22, 2018 at 12:30 pm

    I wonder if the economists who are predicting a crash or crisis in 2019 or 2020 are anti-Trump, pro-Trump, or neutral. I wonder if prejudice and bias plays a role in the prediction.