Vermont: A Small State to Watch

Conservatives should keep an eye on Vermont.

By Sophia Cappawana

 

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Small States Matter

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential race shocked half the country, but this year’s electoral surprises do not stop there. The elections in Vermont produced intriguing results that could signal a historic political realignment.

During election cycles, news outlets tend to focus on larger states like California, Texas, and Florida. The media coverage is well-justified, but it is equally important to recognize the difference small states can still make on election results. In close presidential races, small numbers matter and the race to 270 is often tight. 

As small as it is, Vermont elected three different parties in the most recent presidential, gubernatorial, and senate races. Combined with relatively small margins, this oddity makes a powerful case that small states like Vermont still matter and that conservatives should pay attention to them. (LISTEN MORE: Liberty Mail: The Power of Local Elections in Pennsylvania) 

 

Changing Trends

Following the trend of New England states, Vermont voters gave Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris its three electoral votes. Harris won the state 235,791 votes to Donald Trump’s 119,393 votes. Her crushing victory came as no surprise. 

In Vermont’s U.S. Senate race, the incumbent, Independent Bernie Sanders, also cruised to reelection and a fourth term in office. With numbers tracking closely to the presidential race, Sanders beat out Republican candidate Gerald Malloy 229,904 votes to 116,522.

The gubernatorial race, however, is where Vermont gets interesting. The incumbent governor, Republican Phil Scott, beat Democratic challenger Esther Charlestin 266,434 votes to 79,220. These  numbers do not follow the Vermont’s Democrat-dominated presidential and senate trends.

 

Red Governor, Blue State

Why did Vermont reelect a Republican governor while siding with Sanders and Harris?

One reason is policy. Phil Scott’s platform could appeal to many. Scott presents himself as a man of the people, emphasizing that he stands for growing the economy, making Vermont more affordable, and protecting the most vulnerable. (READ MORE: Visionary Voting on Election Day) 

On the other side, Scott’s Democratic opponent, Esther Charlestin, championed sustainable education systems, attainable housing, livability, climate resilience, and just energy transition. This environmentally-focused platform did not appear to appeal to voters. Charlestin’s campaign also took a cautiously optimistic view of Vermont’s current trajectory. At the outset of her campaign, Charlestin referenced many unanswered questions that she would address as governor and her plans to help women engage in the policy-making process. Charlestin’s policy program appeared to miss the mark with voters and likely contributed to Scott’s reelection.

As the incumbent, Scott also enjoyed the advantage of running on his record throughout the race. A household name in Vermont, Scott began building his reputation as a state senator and lieutenant governor before becoming governor.

Scott’s accomplishments, however, are decidedly unique. Elected Lieutenant Governor alongside a Democratic Governor, Peter Shumlin and winning his bid for Governor when Independent Bernie Sanders and Democrat Patrick Leahy represented Vermont in the U.S. Senate, incumbency seemingly does not explain Scott’s career-long success as a Republican in a traditionally Democrat state.

 

A Party Swap?

If widely popular Republican platforms like Scott’s become commonplace, Vermont could see an increase of Republicans or independents in high office. Scott’s platform clearly appeals to Vermonters and unites Democrats and Republicans across the state. Despite voting for the Democratic presidential candidate, Vermont reelected a popular Republican and longtime public servant as their governor and an independent for the U.S. Senate.

With a Republican governor and an independent senator who may be on one of his last terms, Vermont is a state that conservatives should keep an eye on. If more Scott-like Republicans emerge, the GOP could see increasing electoral success in Vermont.

Given Vermont’s support for Harris, a complete abandonment of statewide historic Democratic control is unlikely. A rise in Republicans in power is, however, possible if conservative candidates follow in Scott’s footsteps.

 

 

About the Author

Sophia Cappawana is a sophomore at Grove City College majoring in Political Science. Sophia, as a seventh-generation resident of Duncannon, PA, was elected to Duncannon Borough Council after serving six years as a junior council member. She serves on the Finance, Administration, and IT committee as well as the Revitalization and Public Safety committee.

Sophia participates in the Spanish Club at Grove City College and serves as a TA for Dr. April Knupp. Her hobbies include reading and following Hershey Bears hockey. She has taken multiple Political Science classes and enjoyed taking Political Philosophy and the Christian Intellectual Tradition, Faith and Public Life, and The American Presidency.  

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the writer alone and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Grove City College, the Institute for Faith and Freedom, or their affiliates.

Cover Image: Photo by Phil Hearing on Unsplash (Cropped). 

Vermont Electoral Maps: ZackCarns, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (License)